I highly doubt that EU offensive is on the table, but, well, other than what you’ve said, these aging bastards won’t have any repercussions for whatever they’d order. They don’t lose anything but Vanya units on the map, they’d likely find a great retirement somewhere in Africa in the end. They can gamble whatever they have and still stay on the top.
It’s a question of how EU and NATO can respond, if the’d respond. There’s a need for more tools to make oligarchs, modern-time boyars, lose everything and suffer, maybe even Mossad-style, in order for gating any new offensives. To make them know they won’t be safe after doing X.
Imagine if, all at once, the whole cabinet would fly into Uganda or wherever country Wagner PMC took hold of. Is there an instrument to make them face anything then? Or they can just sniff coke and fuck for the next twenty years? Would there be any consequencies?